History of recession and fundamentals - a proven way to survive bumpy roads.

Published on 28th February, 2023

Recession refers to a period of economic decline characterized by a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters. It is a time when businesses experience a decline in profits, consumers spend less, and unemployment rates increase. The global economy has seen several recessions since the 20th century, and understanding their causes and effects is crucial for both established companies and startups.

Significant recessions since the 20th century

The 20th century saw several significant recessions, including the Great Depression of the 1930s, which was the longest and most severe economic downturn in modern history. In the 1970s and 1980s, the world experienced two oil crises, which caused inflation and unemployment rates to rise. In the early 2000s, the dot-com bubble burst, leading to a recession. The 2008 financial crisis was another significant recession caused by the collapse of the housing market and the banking system.

Causes of recession

Recessions can be caused by various macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, changes in consumer behaviour, and external events such as natural disasters, wars, and pandemics. Inflation is a crucial factor that can lead to a recession as it increases the cost of living and decreases consumer spending. Interest rates also play a significant role in causing a recession, as high interest rates make borrowing expensive, which in turn reduces consumer spending and business investments.

How can a business survive in a recession?

Companies with sound fundamentals, such as strong cash reserves, low debt, and efficient operations, are better equipped to withstand the effects of a recession. During a recession, companies with strong fundamentals can reduce their operating costs, cut back on investments, and focus on maintaining their cash reserves. By doing so, they can weather the storm and emerge from the recession in a better position to grow and expand.

Examples

One example of a company with strong fundamentals is Walmart. During the Great Recession, Walmart's revenue continued to grow, as consumers looked for ways to save money on everyday expenses. Walmart's size and scale, combined with its focus on low prices, helped the company to maintain its position as one of the largest retailers in the world.

Another example is of Amazon. Despite the economic downturn, Amazon continued to grow, as more and more consumers turned to online shopping to save money. Amazon's investments in technology and infrastructure, along with its focus on customer service, helped the company to continue growing and expanding its market share.

For startups

Startups face unique challenges during a recession, and it is crucial for them to develop good fundamentals to ensure their survival. Good fundamentals include having a solid business plan, adequate cash reserves, efficient operations, and a focus on customer satisfaction. By developing these fundamentals, startups can weather the storm of a recession and emerge stronger on the other side.

Conclusion

Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle, and understanding their causes and anticipating their effects is critical for any company's long-term viability. Companies with strong fundamentals are better positioned to weather the storm of a recession, whereas startups must focus on developing strong fundamentals to ensure their survival and position themselves to grow and expand.

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